Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.7#311
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace81.9#8
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#303
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 2.5% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.3
.500 or above 13.6% 33.5% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 39.6% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.9% 2.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 7.5% 17.1%
First Four0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 2.10.0 - 2.1
Quad 1b0.1 - 1.70.1 - 3.8
Quad 20.3 - 3.60.4 - 7.4
Quad 31.7 - 6.22.1 - 13.6
Quad 48.5 - 6.810.6 - 20.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 53   Oklahoma L 79-97 9%    
  Nov 12, 2018 309   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-75 38%    
  Nov 14, 2018 297   Prairie View L 81-82 57%    
  Nov 19, 2018 290   @ East Carolina L 76-78 34%    
  Nov 21, 2018 113   @ Georgia Tech L 66-78 8%    
  Nov 23, 2018 227   Lamar L 74-79 43%    
  Nov 26, 2018 309   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-75 59%    
  Nov 28, 2018 37   @ Houston L 68-88 2%    
  Dec 01, 2018 256   @ Texas Arlington L 79-82 29%    
  Dec 05, 2018 271   North Dakota L 79-82 51%    
  Dec 15, 2018 203   Texas St. L 67-73 38%    
  Dec 18, 2018 323   Rice W 76-75 63%    
  Dec 22, 2018 304   McNeese St. L 79-80 59%    
  Dec 28, 2018 29   @ Texas Tech L 65-85 2%    
  Jan 03, 2019 90   @ UC Irvine L 68-82 7%    
  Jan 05, 2019 288   @ California Baptist L 76-78 34%    
  Jan 10, 2019 204   Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-75 40%    
  Jan 12, 2019 114   Grand Canyon L 70-82 22%    
  Jan 17, 2019 152   @ Utah Valley L 73-82 15%    
  Jan 19, 2019 244   @ Seattle L 74-78 29%    
  Jan 26, 2019 93   New Mexico St. L 69-83 19%    
  Jan 31, 2019 350   Chicago St. W 85-77 81%    
  Feb 02, 2019 279   UMKC L 77-80 52%    
  Feb 07, 2019 114   @ Grand Canyon L 70-82 10%    
  Feb 09, 2019 204   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 69-75 23%    
  Feb 14, 2019 244   Seattle L 74-78 47%    
  Feb 16, 2019 152   Utah Valley L 73-82 30%    
  Feb 23, 2019 93   @ New Mexico St. L 69-83 8%    
  Feb 28, 2019 350   @ Chicago St. W 85-77 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 279   @ UMKC L 77-80 33%    
  Mar 07, 2019 288   California Baptist L 76-78 54%    
Projected Record 10.6 - 20.4 5.6 - 10.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.6 3.8 1.3 0.1 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.7 5.4 1.1 0.1 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.3 8.1 5.3 1.0 0.0 21.1 7th
8th 0.4 3.4 8.2 7.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 23.3 8th
9th 0.8 3.1 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 9th
Total 0.8 3.5 6.7 11.3 13.9 14.4 14.4 11.8 8.4 6.8 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 84.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1
13-3 73.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 22.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-5 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 4.4% 4.4% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 25.1% 25.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.4% 17.3% 17.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-4 1.1% 8.3% 8.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-5 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-6 3.8% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-7 6.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.6
8-8 8.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
7-9 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.7
6-10 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-11 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-12 13.9% 13.9
3-13 11.3% 11.3
2-14 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.7
1-15 3.5% 3.5
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%